Debt-to-GDP ratio atau rasio utang terhadap PDB adalah rasio yang digunakan untuk mengukur kemampuan suatu negara untuk membayar utangnya. Ini dihitung dengan membagi total utang publik terhadap produk domestik bruto (PDB) suatu negara.
Rumus dan implikasi rasio utang terhadap PDB
Rumus untuk menghitung rasio adalah sebagai berikut:
- Debt-to-GDP ratio = Total Utang/Total PDB
Di mana, total utang adalah jumlah utang pemerintah (utang publik) suatu negara dan Produk Domestik Bruto adalah nilai moneter dari total barang yang diproduksi dan jasa yang diproduksi selama periode tertentu di negara tersebut.
Implikasi
Semakin tinggi rasionya, semakin kecil kemungkinan suatu negara akan mampu membayar utangnya. Hal ini, pada gilirannya, dapat menyebabkan negara gagal bayar dan menyebabkan kepanikan finansial di pasar domestik dan internasional.
Dalam sebuah studi yang dilakukan oleh Bank Dunia, rasio yang melebihi 77% untuk periode waktu yang lama dapat mengakibatkan dampak buruk pada pertumbuhan ekonomi. Diindikasikan bahwa setiap tambahan persentase poin utang mengurangi pertumbuhan riil tahunan sebesar 1,7%.
Secara spesifik, efeknya bahkan lebih jelas di pasar negara berkembang di mana ambangnya adalah 64%. Di negara-negara ini, kerugian dalam pertumbuhan riil tahunan dengan setiap tambahan persentase poin dalam utang publik, mengurangi pertumbuhan riil tahunan sebesar 2%.
Catatan
Rasio utang terhadap PDB umumnya disalahpahami karena banyak orang berpikir bahwa rasio melebihi 100% menunjukkan negara yang bangkrut atau bangkrut. Padahal kenyataannya tidak demikian.
Misalnya, rasio utang pemerintah pusat terhadap PDB Jepang adalah 237% pada 2018. Meskipun rasio Jepang secara signifikan lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan negara lain, analis menempatkan risiko negara gagal bayar sangat rendah. Jepang dapat mempertahankan dan tetap bertahan meskipun rasio yang mengejutkan karena fakta bahwa sebagian besar obligasi pemerintah Jepang dipegang oleh warga negara itu, menghasilkan tingkat bunga yang sangat rendah.
Ada sejumlah negara lain yang memiliki rasio utang lebih dari 100%, sebagaimana tersaji dalam tabel berikut:
| Country | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Afghanistan | 8 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 7.4 | no data |
| Albania | 71.9 | 69.5 | 67.8 | 77.6 | 81.5 |
| Algeria | 26.8 | 37.8 | 45.8 | 55.6 | 58.5 |
| Andorra | 37.8 | 36.3 | 35.4 | 46.8 | 51.6 |
| Angola | 69.3 | 93 | 113.6 | 136.5 | 103.7 |
| Antigua and Barbuda | 92.2 | 87.7 | 81.3 | 101.3 | 105.2 |
| Argentina | 57 | 85.2 | 88.7 | 102.8 | no data |
| Armenia | 53.7 | 51.2 | 50.1 | 63.5 | 62.2 |
| Aruba | 75.8 | 75 | 72.9 | 115.1 | 117.5 |
| Australia | 41.1 | 41.6 | 46.6 | 57.3 | 62.1 |
| Austria | 78.6 | 74 | 70.5 | 83.2 | 84.2 |
| Azerbaijan | 22.5 | 18.7 | 17.7 | 21.4 | 28.9 |
| Bahamas, The | 53.3 | 61.8 | 59.7 | 75.2 | 102.5 |
| Bahrain | 88.1 | 95 | 102.1 | 129.7 | 123.3 |
| Bangladesh | 33.4 | 34.6 | 35.7 | 38.9 | 39.9 |
| Barbados | 158.3 | 126 | 124.8 | 156.8 | 138.3 |
| Belarus | 53.2 | 47.5 | 41 | 48 | 44.9 |
| Belgium | 102 | 99.8 | 98.1 | 114.1 | 113.4 |
| Belize | 95.2 | 94.3 | 94.4 | 123.3 | 117.9 |
| Benin | 39.6 | 41.1 | 41.2 | 46.1 | 52.3 |
| Bhutan | 111.7 | 110.5 | 106.6 | 120.7 | 123.4 |
| Bolivia | 51.3 | 53.8 | 59.1 | 78.8 | 82.7 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 39.2 | 34.3 | 32.5 | 36.7 | 38.9 |
| Botswana | 14.6 | 15.7 | 16.3 | 19.5 | 22.8 |
| Brazil | 83.6 | 85.6 | 87.7 | 98.9 | 90.6 |
| Brunei Darussalam | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.3 |
| Bulgaria | 23 | 20.1 | 18.4 | 23.6 | 25 |
| Burkina Faso | 33.6 | 38 | 42 | 46.5 | 48.2 |
| Burundi | 46.9 | 53 | 60.3 | 67 | 72.4 |
| Cabo Verde | 127.2 | 125.6 | 124.9 | 158.1 | 160.7 |
| Cambodia | 30 | 28.5 | 28.6 | 34.2 | 37 |
| Cameroon | 37.7 | 39.6 | 42.3 | 45.8 | 45.8 |
| Canada | 88.8 | 88.8 | 86.8 | 117.5 | 109.9 |
| Central African Republic | 50.3 | 50 | 47.2 | 44.1 | 46.5 |
| Chad | 50.3 | 49.1 | 52.3 | 47.9 | 44 |
| Chile | 23.6 | 25.6 | 28.2 | 32.5 | 34.4 |
| China, People’s Republic of | 51.7 | 53.8 | 57.1 | 66.3 | 68.9 |
| Colombia | 49.4 | 53.6 | 52.3 | 65.4 | 66.7 |
| Comoros | 17.2 | 16.9 | 19.5 | 22.3 | 26.6 |
| Congo, Dem. Rep. of the | 19.2 | 15.1 | 15 | 15.2 | 11.9 |
| Congo, Republic of | 94.2 | 77.1 | 81.7 | 101 | 85.4 |
| Costa Rica | 47.1 | 51.8 | 56.7 | 67.5 | 71.2 |
| Croatia | 77.5 | 74.2 | 72.8 | 88.7 | 87 |
| Cyprus | 93.5 | 99.2 | 94 | 119.1 | 111 |
| Czech Republic | 34.2 | 32.1 | 30 | 37.8 | 45 |
| Côte d’Ivoire | 33.5 | 36 | 38.8 | 47.7 | 50.2 |
| Denmark | 35.9 | 34 | 33.6 | 42.1 | 38.8 |
| Djibouti | 47.9 | 46.5 | 39 | 40.9 | 42.3 |
| Dominica | 80.2 | 84.6 | 94.7 | 108.7 | 107.8 |
| Dominican Republic | 48.8 | 50.4 | 53.5 | 71.5 | 66.1 |
| Ecuador | 44.6 | 49.1 | 51.4 | 61.2 | 61 |
| Egypt | 103 | 92.5 | 84.2 | 89.8 | 91.4 |
| El Salvador | 70.5 | 70.4 | 71.3 | 89.2 | 84.2 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 36.2 | 41.2 | 43 | 48.9 | 42.7 |
| Eritrea | 202.5 | 185.6 | 189.3 | 184.9 | 175.1 |
| Estonia | 9.1 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 18.5 | 20 |
| Eswatini | 27.6 | 33.9 | 40 | 41.2 | 46 |
| Ethiopia | 57.7 | 61.1 | 57.9 | 55.4 | 57.1 |
| Fiji | 44.4 | 46.4 | 48.9 | 70.8 | 86.8 |
| Finland | 61.2 | 59.8 | 59.5 | 69.5 | 72.2 |
| France | 98.3 | 98 | 97.6 | 115.1 | 115.8 |
| Gabon | 62.9 | 60.9 | 59.8 | 77.4 | 72.1 |
| Gambia, The | 87 | 83.6 | 83 | 83.5 | 82.3 |
| Georgia | 39.4 | 38.9 | 40.4 | 60 | 54.2 |
| Germany | 65 | 61.6 | 59.2 | 69.1 | 72.5 |
| Ghana | 57 | 62 | 62.6 | 78.9 | 83.5 |
| Greece | 182.4 | 189.9 | 184.9 | 211.2 | 206.7 |
| Grenada | 70.1 | 64.5 | 60.6 | 71.3 | 70.2 |
| Guatemala | 25.1 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 31.5 | 32.1 |
| Guinea | 41.9 | 39.3 | 38.4 | 43.8 | 47.5 |
| Guinea-Bissau | 50 | 59.2 | 65.9 | 79.3 | 79.1 |
| Guyana | 43.2 | 47.4 | 43.9 | 51.4 | 47 |
| Haiti | 19 | 21.6 | 25.8 | 21.3 | 24.9 |
| Honduras | 38.9 | 39.7 | 43.3 | 51.3 | 58.9 |
| Hong Kong SAR | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1 | 2.1 |
| Hungary | 72.2 | 69.1 | 65.5 | 80.4 | 76.6 |
| Iceland | 71.6 | 63.1 | 66.1 | 77.1 | 75.8 |
| India | 69.7 | 70.4 | 74.1 | 89.6 | 90.6 |
| Indonesia | 29.4 | 30.4 | 30.6 | 36.6 | 41.4 |
| Iran | 36.9 | 38.5 | 47.9 | 39.5 | 33.6 |
| Iraq | 59.1 | 47.8 | 45.1 | 84.2 | 59.4 |
| Ireland | 67.8 | 63.2 | 57.3 | 58.5 | 57.3 |
| Israel | 60.2 | 60.4 | 59.5 | 72 | 73.2 |
| Italy | 134.1 | 134.4 | 134.6 | 155.8 | 154.8 |
| Jamaica | 101.2 | 94.4 | 94.3 | 107.4 | 95.8 |
| Japan | 231.4 | 232.5 | 235.4 | 254.1 | 256.9 |
| Jordan | 76 | 75.1 | 78 | 88 | 90.9 |
| Kazakhstan | 19.9 | 20.3 | 19.9 | 26.3 | 25.2 |
| Kenya | 54.8 | 57.3 | 59 | 67.6 | 69.7 |
| Kiribati | 21.4 | 19.4 | 18.1 | 17.4 | 20.9 |
| Korea, Republic of | 40.1 | 40 | 42.1 | 47.9 | 51.3 |
| Kosovo | 16.2 | 17 | 17.6 | 24.1 | 25.8 |
| Kuwait | 20.5 | 15.1 | 11.6 | 11.7 | 7.9 |
| Kyrgyz Republic | 58.8 | 54.8 | 51.6 | 68 | 67.6 |
| Lao P.D.R. | 57.2 | 59.7 | 61.1 | 68.2 | 70.9 |
| Latvia | 39 | 37.1 | 37 | 43.5 | 47.6 |
| Lebanon | 149.2 | 154 | 171.1 | 150.4 | no data |
| Lesotho | 39.9 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 50.4 | 50 |
| Liberia | 33.6 | 40.1 | 54.8 | 61.9 | 56.6 |
| Lithuania | 39.3 | 33.7 | 35.9 | 47.1 | 47.4 |
| Luxembourg | 22.3 | 21 | 22 | 24.8 | 26.3 |
| Macao SAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Madagascar | 40.1 | 40.4 | 38.5 | 46 | 48.8 |
| Malawi | 41.5 | 43.9 | 45.3 | 54.7 | 59.3 |
| Malaysia | 54.4 | 55.6 | 57.1 | 67.4 | 70.7 |
| Maldives | 64.6 | 72 | 78.3 | 146 | 137.2 |
| Mali | 35.5 | 36.1 | 40.6 | 47.4 | 51 |
| Malta | 47.5 | 43.4 | 40.6 | 53.3 | 63 |
| Marshall Islands | 25.6 | 24.5 | 24.8 | 19 | 14.4 |
| Mauritania | 54.8 | 58.9 | 56.8 | 59.2 | 55.4 |
| Mauritius | 64.3 | 66.2 | 84.6 | 96.9 | 101 |
| Mexico | 54 | 53.6 | 53.3 | 61 | 59.8 |
| Micronesia, Fed. States of | 21.9 | 18.8 | 18.7 | 16.1 | 15.1 |
| Moldova | 34.3 | 31.2 | 28.3 | 34.8 | 38.1 |
| Mongolia | 84.4 | 74.3 | 68.4 | 77 | 77.7 |
| Montenegro | 66.2 | 71.9 | 78.8 | 107.2 | 93.4 |
| Morocco | 65.1 | 65.2 | 65.1 | 75.4 | 75.8 |
| Mozambique | 99.6 | 107.1 | 105.4 | 128.5 | 133.6 |
| Myanmar | 38.5 | 40.4 | 38.8 | 39.3 | 58.4 |
| Namibia | 43.2 | 50.4 | 59.6 | 65.3 | 69.9 |
| Nauru | 76.7 | 74.3 | 62 | 59.3 | 28.2 |
| Nepal | 25 | 30.1 | 33.1 | 42.2 | 46.7 |
| Netherlands | 56.9 | 52.4 | 47.4 | 52.5 | 58.1 |
| New Zealand | 31.1 | 28 | 32 | 43.6 | 52 |
| Nicaragua | 34.1 | 37.7 | 41.7 | 47.9 | 49.5 |
| Niger | 36.5 | 36.9 | 39.8 | 45 | 48.6 |
| Nigeria | 25.3 | 27.7 | 29.2 | 35 | 35.7 |
| North Macedonia | 39.4 | 40.4 | 40.6 | 51.2 | 53 |
| Norway | 38.6 | 39.7 | 40.9 | 41.4 | 42.7 |
| Oman | 45.9 | 51.3 | 60.5 | 81.2 | 68.2 |
| Pakistan | 67.1 | 72.1 | 85.3 | 87.6 | 83.4 |
| Panama | 35.3 | 37.3 | 42.2 | 66.3 | 62.2 |
| Papua New Guinea | 32.5 | 36.7 | 40 | 48.9 | 45.5 |
| Paraguay | 19.8 | 22.3 | 25.8 | 36.7 | 38.4 |
| Peru | 25.4 | 26.1 | 27.1 | 35.1 | 35 |
| Philippines | 38.1 | 37.1 | 37 | 51.7 | 59.1 |
| Poland | 50.6 | 48.8 | 45.6 | 57.5 | 55.5 |
| Portugal | 126.1 | 121.5 | 116.6 | 135.2 | 130.8 |
| Puerto Rico | 51.2 | 50.2 | 50.2 | 52.6 | 52.4 |
| Qatar | 51.6 | 52.2 | 62.3 | 72.1 | 59 |
| Romania | 36.8 | 36.5 | 36.8 | 49.8 | 51.1 |
| Russian Federation | 14.3 | 13.6 | 13.8 | 19.3 | 17.9 |
| Rwanda | 41.3 | 44.9 | 50.2 | 60.1 | 74.8 |
| Saint Kitts and Nevis | 55.8 | 53.6 | 51.4 | 56.9 | 61.7 |
| Saint Lucia | 59.9 | 60 | 61.4 | 92.1 | 95.6 |
| Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 73.5 | 75.6 | 75.1 | 85 | 101 |
| Samoa | 49.6 | 52.8 | 47.4 | 46.5 | 47.6 |
| San Marino | 61 | 63.5 | 62.9 | 76.9 | 94.6 |
| Saudi Arabia | 17.2 | 19 | 22.8 | 32.5 | 29.7 |
| Senegal | 61.1 | 61.5 | 63.8 | 68.7 | 71.9 |
| Serbia | 58.6 | 54.4 | 52.8 | 58.4 | 59.9 |
| Seychelles | 62.1 | 59.1 | 57.7 | 96.5 | 81.9 |
| Sierra Leone | 69.2 | 69.1 | 71.7 | 73.7 | 71.1 |
| Singapore | 107.8 | 109.8 | 129 | 154.9 | 137.9 |
| Slovak Republic | 51.6 | 49.7 | 48.2 | 60.3 | 61.4 |
| Slovenia | 74.1 | 70.3 | 65.6 | 79.8 | 77.2 |
| Solomon Islands | 8.4 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 14 | 20.4 |
| South Africa | 48.6 | 51.6 | 56.3 | 69.4 | 68.8 |
| South Sudan, Republic of | 60.7 | 46.3 | 31.3 | 35.8 | 64.4 |
| Spain | 98.6 | 97.5 | 95.5 | 119.9 | 120.2 |
| Sri Lanka | 77.9 | 84.2 | 86.8 | 101.2 | 109.3 |
| Sudan | 152.9 | 186.7 | 200.3 | 272.9 | 209.9 |
| Suriname | 71.5 | 66.1 | 85.2 | 148.2 | 140.6 |
| Sweden | 40.7 | 38.9 | 34.9 | 37.3 | 39.6 |
| Switzerland | 41.2 | 39.2 | 39.8 | 42.4 | 42.7 |
| Syria | no data | no data | no data | no data | no data |
| São Tomé and Príncipe | 85.8 | 93.9 | 71.6 | 81.4 | 60.7 |
| Taiwan Province of China | 34.5 | 33.9 | 32.7 | 32.7 | 27.2 |
| Tajikistan | 50.3 | 47.8 | 44.1 | 51.3 | 49.3 |
| Tanzania | 40.7 | 40.5 | 39 | 39.1 | 39.7 |
| Thailand | 41.8 | 42 | 41 | 49.6 | 58 |
| Timor-Leste | 6.6 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 16.5 |
| Togo | 56.6 | 57 | 52.4 | 60.3 | 62.9 |
| Tonga | 44.7 | 45.9 | 41.3 | 43.3 | 45.6 |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 42.6 | 42.4 | 46.5 | 59.3 | 70.4 |
| Tunisia | 73.6 | 80.1 | 74.2 | 89.7 | 90.2 |
| Turkey | 28 | 30.2 | 32.7 | 39.8 | 37.8 |
| Turkmenistan | 28 | 31.5 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 27 |
| Tuvalu | 12 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 6 |
| Uganda | 33.6 | 34.8 | 37 | 44.1 | 49.1 |
| Ukraine | 71.6 | 60.4 | 50.5 | 60.8 | 54.4 |
| United Arab Emirates | 21.6 | 20.9 | 27.1 | 39.4 | 37.3 |
| United Kingdom | 86.3 | 85.8 | 85.2 | 104.5 | 108.5 |
| United States | 106 | 107.1 | 108.5 | 133.9 | 133.3 |
| Uruguay | 56.5 | 58.6 | 60.5 | 68.1 | 67.5 |
| Uzbekistan | 19.3 | 19.5 | 28.3 | 36.4 | 38.9 |
| Vanuatu | 51.8 | 48.1 | 45.3 | 48.7 | 46.1 |
| Venezuela | 26 | 180.8 | 232.8 | 304.1 | no data |
| Vietnam | 46.3 | 43.7 | 43.6 | 46.3 | 47.9 |
| Yemen | 77.4 | 74.5 | 76.5 | 84.2 | 73.5 |
| Zambia | 66.3 | 80.4 | 97.4 | 128.7 | 101 |
| Zimbabwe | 54.4 | 61.5 | 113.9 | 86.1 | 54 |